Supply and Demand: What Dubai Tells Us About RAK's Wave of New Homes
About 1,200 new homes were handed over in Ras Al Khaimah in 2025. CBRE expects more than 24,000 between 2028 and 2030, or roughly 8,000 a year. Dubai is going through the same kind of supply wave about two years ahead of RAK, and it went through one before, between 2014 and 2019. In that downturn, rents fell most where the most new homes were handed over, and the homes that could not be built again nearby held their value best. We think buyers in RAK can avoid most of the risk from new supply by being careful about where they buy, what they buy and what they pay.
We set out the RAK figures below, then what happened in Dubai, then what it means for anyone buying here now. We will refer back to this article, so every figure is dated and sourced.
In brief
RAK's yearly handovers rise more than six times between 2025 and the peak years of 2028 to 2030. Dubai's peak is about one and a half times its normal rate.
In Dubai's last supply-driven downturn, from 2014 to 2019, rents fell most where the most new homes were handed over. Dubai's falls in 2026 are harder to read, because the regional conflict hit at the same time as the new supply.
In Dubai's last downturn, villas on Palm Jumeirah fell least and recovered most. Apartments on the same island did much worse.
An off-plan home is valued against ready homes once it is handed over, so the price you pay at launch matters as much as the location.
If you live in the home, or keep it for ten years or more, new supply matters much less.
RAK property supply, in numbers
Cavendish Maxwell counted about 1,200 homes handed over in RAK in 2025. It expects 2,200 in 2026, 4,700 in 2027 and 7,500 in 2028 (September 2026). CBRE's figures are similar: 320 homes in the first half of 2026, about 1,500 in the second half, about 4,300 in 2027 and more than 24,000 between 2028 and 2030 (H1 2026). Savills estimated in May 2025 that RAK's housing stock will double by the end of 2030, counting only projects launched by the end of 2024.
Most of the new homes are in one place. CBRE puts 64% of the homes due between 2026 and 2030 on Al Marjan Island. Many are in towers close together, and several will be handed over within months of each other.
Almost all of them are apartments. Cavendish Maxwell puts apartments at 97% of the homes due by 2030 (July 2026). CBRE expects very few new villas after 2026.
About 10,000 of them, or 22%, carry a hotel or designer brand (CBRE, H1 2026). A few years ago a brand set a RAK scheme apart. By 2030 there will be a lot of branded homes to choose from. What makes a branded residence work →
The rate of increase matters more than the total. Dubai expects about 55,600 handovers in 2026, the most since 2008 (Cushman and Wakefield Core, August 2026). Its average over the previous five years was about 35,500 a year (Morgan's International Realty, 2025), so 2026 is about one and a half times a normal year. RAK's peak years will be more than six times its 2025 figure. The numbers are smaller than Dubai's, but relative to the size of the market the increase is much larger.
What Dubai shows
2014 to 2019: a downturn driven by supply
From the peak in mid-2014 to mid-2019, ValuStrat recorded Dubai property values down 29.3% and rents down 26.1% (Q2 2019). Oversupply was the main reason given at the time, along with a strong dollar and a lower oil price.
Rents fell most where the most new homes were handed over. In the second half of 2019, Dubai apartment rents fell 2.4% on average, but they fell 13.8% in Jumeirah Village Triangle, 10.8% in Town Square and 10% in Dubai Sports City, all areas with large numbers of new homes (Property Finder, via The National, February 2020).
When a tower is handed over, hundreds of similar apartments become available in the same month. Many owners bought them to let, so they all look for tenants at the same time, and the owners who need the income soonest lower their rents. In areas where little can be built, owners do not face that competition.
Some homes also fell much less than others. In the year to the first quarter of 2019, ValuStrat recorded falls of less than 10% for villas on Palm Jumeirah, and falls of more than 16% for Palm Jumeirah apartments. Very few villas could be added to the Palm, while new apartment towers kept being built there.
The recovery followed the same pattern. In mid-2023 Knight Frank found Palm Jumeirah villa prices 67% above their 2017 peak. Palm apartments were still 7% below their 2015 peak, and Dubai as a whole was 11% below its 2014 peak (Knight Frank, summer 2023).
So a good location on its own was not enough. The homes that did best were in a good location and of a type that could not easily be built again nearby.
2026: new supply and a regional conflict at the same time
Dubai's handovers started rising in 2025 and should peak in 2026 and 2027. Before the regional conflict began at the end of February 2026, Fitch was already expecting a moderate price correction in Dubai, driven by new supply outpacing demand (The National, December 2025).
The conflict then hit demand directly. Missiles and drones were fired at the UAE, visitor numbers fell sharply, and in the first 12 days of March UAE property transactions were 37% lower than a year earlier (Goldman Sachs, via Fortune, June 2026). In May, Moody's warned that a sharp slowdown in people moving to Dubai would make it harder to absorb the new homes being completed.
By September 2026, REIDIN recorded Dubai apartment rents down 6.93% and apartment prices down 1.65% on the year. It is not possible to say how much of that is new supply and how much is the conflict, and the two make each other worse: fewer people are arriving just as more homes are finished. Even so, Savills recorded prime apartment prices up 4% and prime villa prices up 3.6% over the same year (Q3 2026).
How new supply could affect your purchase
How RAK's new supply affects you depends on where you buy, what you buy, what you pay and how long you keep it.
Where you buy
Some plots can only be sold once. Two schemes in RAK are good examples.
Janu Residences is on Al Marjan Island, next to Wynn Al Marjan Island, which is due to open in September 2027. Marjan and Wynn Resorts are building it under Janu, the hotel brand of Aman Group, next to a Janu hotel. It will have 73 apartments, one penthouse and five Marina Villas, all furnished by Aman Interiors. Janu says the resort will open in 2028; Marjan's July 2026 release said 2029. Its plot is on the front line beside the resort, and no other plot can be in the same position. Janu Residences, in detail →
Anantara Residences, by RAK Properties, is on a private peninsula on Hayat Island in Mina Al Arab. It has 103 homes, 84 apartments and 19 villas, and handover is due in the second quarter of 2028 (RAK Properties, April 2026). Mina Al Arab is a low-rise community on a lagoon and beach. Its apartment rents rose 10.6% in the year to mid-2026, more than in any other RAK area (CBRE, H1 2026). Anantara Residences, in detail →
In our view, homes like these are the most likely in RAK to keep a premium while the new supply arrives, for the same reason Palm villas did in Dubai: nothing comparable can be built next to them. That is our opinion, not a promise. In a downturn they should fall less and recover sooner than other homes, but they can still fall.
What you buy
On Palm Jumeirah, villas and apartments in the same location did very differently. In RAK, the homes with least new competition are villas, homes in low-rise buildings, large homes, and homes whose view cannot be built over. With 97% of new supply in apartments, a villa in a finished community will compete with very few new homes. A studio or one-bedroom apartment in a tower on Al Marjan Island will compete with many.
Before buying, find out how many homes of the same size will be handed over within a kilometre in the same year. If there are hundreds, the rents you can get in the first year will be set by the owners who cut their prices first.
What you pay
An off-plan home is priced at launch against other new launches. Once it is handed over, buyers, tenants and banks compare it with ready homes.
In RAK the difference between the two is large. CBRE recorded an average apartment price of AED 2,298 per sq ft in the first half of 2026, raised by expensive new launches, and an average of AED 1,044 per sq ft for ready apartments (CBRE, H1 2026). ValuStrat's average apartment value on Al Marjan Island was AED 1,160 per sq ft (Q2 2026).
A new branded home on the beach should be worth more than an older apartment inland, so some of that difference is justified. Buyers should work out how much of it they are paying for. If you pay well above the ready market, prices need to rise before you can sell without a loss. Banks also lend against their own valuation rather than the price in your contract, so at handover your mortgage may be smaller than you expected and you would pay the difference in cash. How UAE mortgages work for non-residents →
Prices are softening, which gives buyers room to negotiate. REIDIN's index of RAK apartment prices has fallen every month from March to September 2026, starting the month after the regional conflict began, and was 4.73% lower than a year earlier. RAK has handed over few new homes so far, so this fall reflects the conflict more than new supply. The latest figures, every month →
How long you keep it
If you live in the home, lower rents do not affect you, and the price only matters when you decide to sell. If you keep it for ten years or more, you will probably see the end of a supply cycle.
In Dubai, a buyer at the mid-2014 peak who had to sell in mid-2019 lost about 29% (ValuStrat). A buyer at January 2014 prices, close to that peak, who kept the home was 43% ahead by September 2026, on REIDIN's Dubai index (January 2014 = 100; September 2026: 143.05). Past movements may not repeat. The buyers who lost money were the ones who had to sell or let during the downturn.
Why we think the next 12 months are a good time to buy
This section is our opinion, not a forecast.
A developer can sell each of the homes that cannot be repeated only once. When Sunshine Bay launched on Al Marjan Island in late 2024, all 240 homes sold within three months (Savills, May 2025). Once a scheme has sold out, you can only buy from an owner, at a price the owner sets.
We see three reasons to act in the next year. Prices have softened because of the conflict, before most of the new supply arrives, so buyers can negotiate. Fitch said in October 2026 that the direct risks from the conflict had eased. Wynn Al Marjan Island opens in September 2027, and we expect the remaining front-line homes nearby to become harder to buy, and more expensive, once it is open. And the biggest handovers do not start until 2028, so a buyer now can still choose a scheme and a type of home that will not be handed over alongside hundreds of similar ones.
Not every purchase made in the next year will do well. Buying a common apartment at a high launch price because Wynn is opening is the kind of purchase we would advise against.
Why a local broker helps
When prices are rising, most purchases do well, whichever scheme the buyer chose. When a lot of new supply is arriving, choosing the right scheme and the right home makes a much bigger difference.
A developer will sell you whatever homes it has left. In our experience, many brokers do the same and offer whatever is on their list that week. Many of the brokers selling RAK are based in Dubai and sell RAK schemes alongside hundreds in Dubai. They lack local knowledge, and are less likely to know which towers will be handed over in the same quarter, which views will be built in front of, or what a ready apartment in the next building rents for.
We live in Al Hamra and work only in RAK. We tell clients which schemes we would not buy, and why. Whoever you buy through, these are the questions we would ask before buying off-plan here. How to choose a broker in RAK →
What could go wrong
These are the main things that could make the advice in this article wrong, and what limits each of them.
A severe crash would hit all homes. Dubai prices fell by more than 50% in 2009 and 2010 (Savills, 2019), and Palm villas fell with the rest of the market. Homes that cannot be repeated tend to fall less and recover sooner, but they still fall.
Demand may be weaker than expected. Wynn is building Wynn Oasis, a community for more than 7,000 of its staff, about 80% of its workforce (Wynn, January 2026), so many of the resort's jobs will not add tenants to the open market. RAK's hotel guest nights fell 29% in the first half of 2026, and visitors from Europe fell 43% (CBRE, H1 2026). The regional conflict could flare up again. Fitch put RAK's A+ rating on watch for a possible downgrade in April 2026 because of it, and removed the watch in October, saying the direct risks had eased (WAM, 4 October 2026).
RAK is a smaller market than Dubai, with fewer buyers for a AED 10m home, so selling even a home in a scarce location may take longer. Developers also know which plots are scarce, and their launch prices often reflect it. Paying too much for a scarce home is still paying too much.
Two things reduce these risks. New homes are usually handed over later than planned. Morgan's International Realty expected only about 48% of the homes scheduled in Dubai for 2026 to be handed over that year, and 62% were handed over in 2025, so RAK's supply is likely to arrive more slowly than the headline figures suggest. Developers also launch fewer projects when the market slows. Dubai launched about 5,000 homes in the third quarter of 2026, against about 36,400 in the second (Savills, Q3 2026). In our view the risk is real, but it will not fall on everyone equally. It is highest for an investor who buys a common apartment at a launch price and needs to let or sell it as soon as it is handed over.
What this means for buyers
If you are buying a home to live in, or to keep for ten years or more, new supply matters least. Buy a home you want, in a place you would still choose in ten years, at a price you can justify against similar ready homes.
If you are buying to let from handover, take most care with studios and one-bedroom apartments in towers due between 2028 and 2030, especially on Al Marjan Island. Find out how many similar homes will be handed over near yours, and what similar ready homes nearby rent for today.
If you want a home in a location that cannot be repeated, you can only buy it from the developer while it is still for sale. Every scheme we cover, with its handover date →
Thinking of buying here? Start here: Buying off-plan →
This article is published for information only and is not legal or investment advice.
Sources
Cavendish Maxwell, Ras Al Khaimah Residential Market Performance 2025; Ras Al Khaimah H1 2026 report (via Reuters, September 2026); RAK pipeline report (via TradeArabia, July 2026)
CBRE, RAK Real Estate Market Review, H1 2026
Savills, RAK residential stock to double by 2030 (May 2025); Dubai Residential Market in Minutes, Q3 2026 (via Arabian Business and Khaleej Times, October 2026)
REIDIN, UAE Residential Property Price Report, September 2026 (edition 214)
ValuStrat, RAK Residential Price Index, Q2 2026; Dubai Price Index, Q1 and Q2 2019 (via Gulf Business and Arabian Business); Dubai rental outlook 2026
Cushman and Wakefield Core, Dubai 2026 delivery forecast (August 2026)
Morgan's International Realty, Dubai Residential Supply and Delivery Outlook 2025 to 2027
Knight Frank, Dubai Residential Market Review, summer 2023
Property Finder Trends, H2 2019 (via The National, February 2020)
Fitch Ratings, Dubai outlook (via The National, December 2025); Goldman Sachs and Moody's (via Fortune, 1 June 2026)
Janu, Janu Residences, Al Marjan Island page and FAQ (November 2026); Marjan, Janu Al Marjan Island groundbreaking release (July 2026); RAK Properties, Anantara Residences factsheet (April 2026)
Wynn Resorts newsroom, Wynn Oasis (26 January 2026); Wynn Al Marjan Island opening date via CBRE (August 2026)
Fitch Ratings, Ras Al Khaimah rating affirmation (via WAM, 4 October 2026)
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